Bubbles and crashes in a Black-Scholes model with delay

This paper studies the asymptotic behaviour of an affine stochastic functional differential equation modelling the evolution of the cumulative return of a risky security. In the model, the traders of the security determine their investment strategy by comparing short– and long–run moving averages of the security’s returns. We show that the cumulative returns either obey the Law of the Iterated Logarithm, but have dependent increments, or exhibit asymptotic behaviour that can be interpreted as a runaway bubble or crash. Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 91B26, 91B70, 34K50, 34K25 JEL Classification: G14